Apple Inc.‘s AAPL newest cargo knowledge from China paints a regarding image: foreign-branded cellphone shipments — a powerful indicator of iPhone gross sales — dropped 21% year-over-year in January.
That’s a pointy reversal from December’s slight development.
Whereas the decline provides to ongoing issues over Apple’s market place in China, a more in-depth have a look at the numbers suggests the worst could also be behind the corporate.
In a observe shared Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng highlighted the most recent knowledge from the China Academy of Info and Communications Know-how. General cell phone shipments in China fell 14% year-over-year to 27.2 million items in January, the most important decline since September’s 24% drop.
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Is Apple Nonetheless Shedding Floor in China?
The numbers mirror a transparent development: Apple’s gross sales in China have been below stress for months. From September to November 2024, foreign-branded cellphone shipments within the nation collapsed by greater than 40% yearly every month, indicating that Apple was shedding share to home opponents corresponding to Huawei Applied sciences Co. and Xiaomi Corp. XIACY
But, the January figures supply a silver lining. Whereas nonetheless adverse on a yearly foundation, the 21% year-over-year decline represents an enchancment over the 40%-47% plunges seen in earlier months.
Goldman Sachs notes that December and January outcomes “could have benefited from stock construct” forward of the implementation of nationwide shopper smartphone subsidies on Jan. 20.
Moreover, foreign-branded shipments rose 17% month-over-month from December, suggesting some stabilization—although nonetheless beneath the everyday seasonal soar of 51% seen in previous years.
International-branded telephones held a 16% market share, up from 11% in December 2024, although nonetheless beneath the historic 17% in January 2024 and 48% in January 2023.
Goldman Sachs Holds ‘Purchase’ Ranking, Retains $294 Worth Goal On AAPL
Regardless of the weak cargo knowledge, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its “Purchase” score on AAPL with a 12-month value goal of $294, implying a 37.7% upside from its newest closing value of $213.49. The valuation relies on 33x projected earnings for the subsequent 12 months plus one 12 months.
Apple shares had been down 0.1% in premarket buying and selling on Tuesday, reflecting cautious sentiment across the knowledge.
The Cupertino-based tech large is down 14.5% year-to-date, on observe for the worst quarter since early 2022.
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