What the Center East conflicts reveal about the way forward for terrorism

The struggle that has consumed the Center East for greater than a yr, drawing in Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, was sparked by Hamas’s brutal—however non-traditional—terrorist assault of October 7, 2023. As these overlapping conflicts could also be beginning to wind down, it’s value taking inventory of the invaluable insights they supply into the character of terrorism and its potential future developments. 

What stand out most are the potential of cross-border assaults, the decrease technological boundaries to inflicting main harm, the escalatory dangers arising from coordination amongst terrorist teams, and the ability of psychological warfare to form a battle.

Securing the border

The inciting assault of October 7 was not a “typical” terrorist act; it was meticulously deliberate and executed as each an invasion and a declaration of struggle on Israel. Whereas the assault included components historically related to terrorism—such because the mass homicide of civilians, together with girls and kids; heinous acts like rape; and the kidnapping of hostages, largely civilians, taken to Gaza—it went far past the standard scope of terrorism.

The assault underscored for Israel, and possibly for different nations, the pressing must reevaluate its strategy to frame safety, as the specter of terror-attack-as-invasion has develop into a tangible actuality. Within the aftermath of October 7, there’s a rising chance that different terrorist organizations, and even some established armies, could try to copy such operations, combining invasion ways with acts of terror.

Israel realized this lesson the toughest approach. However different nations—significantly these with adversaries alongside their borders—ought to now take into account making ready for comparable situations to make sure the safety of their borders and the security of their civilian populations, thereby minimizing the chance of comparable assaults. This consists of actively defending borders, even when a direct risk will not be anticipated. Israel’s expertise has proven that technological measures alone are usually not all the time adequate. In defending in opposition to terrorist organizations, the most effective strategy is to arrange primarily based on their capabilities somewhat than their usually difficult-to-predict motivations. Additionally, we are able to anticipate an increase in investments in anti-missile armor, as capabilities similar to Israel’s Iron Dome can play a vital position in sustaining and defending civilian lives.

Low-tech terror

One other essential lesson realized from the ways and capabilities utilized by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and even Iran is that low-cost know-how is now reworking the character of armed conflicts all over the world—from the Center East to Ukraine. Instruments similar to drones and unmanned aerial automobiles, in addition to low-cost rockets and outdated and primitive missile launchers, are enhancing the precision and effectiveness of assaults, demonstrating that terrorist organizations don’t require superior, high-tech capabilities to realize strategic targets and inflict vital harm on their adversaries. Terrorist organizations, in addition to sovereign nations and established armies, can use easy instruments, a few of that are bought on-line, and adapt them to their wants with out essentially counting on arms industries to problem their enemies. These strategies can show efficient in opposition to Western militaries which have chosen to defend in opposition to assaults by investing in capabilities similar to fighter jets, refined radar methods, naval vessels, and high-end ammunition. 

This could function a wake-up name for nations to adapt to the evolving threats posed by cheap and accessible applied sciences. For instance, nations ought to develop options to counter drones and different precision capabilities in areas the place the Iron Dome system has solely partial success. Most significantly, nations should intently monitor developments of their enemies’ capabilities as threats will proceed to evolve. This understanding is essential, as low-tech assaults can persist for prolonged intervals and trigger vital harm to each civilian and army targets.

The chance of escalation

The October 7 assault and subsequent energetic involvement of different terror teams and nations demonstrated how assaults of this nature can shortly escalate into full-scale wars with a number of members. In addition to Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria additionally grew to become concerned within the wide-scale struggle, though they weren’t initially a part of the assault and will have chosen to stay uninvolved. These teams’ involvement additionally drew within the United States, the United Kingdom, and others who hit again in opposition to them.

This enlargement of the battle had profound penalties for the civilian populations and governments of the nations the place these teams function. Greater than a million civilians fled their houses in Lebanon through the armed battle with Israel, following counterattacks by the Israel Protection Forces. This isn’t to say the large harm and struggling to the individuals within the Gaza Strip.

It’s now clear that Hamas’s assault not solely dramatically broken Hamas itself, but additionally weakened the broader Axis of Resistance, because the area’s Iran-backed armed teams are recognized. This dynamic could lead some terrorist teams to rethink their actions sooner or later. These teams possible will search prior affirmation and help from their allies—which means Iran, within the case of Hamas and Hezbollah—earlier than any future large-scale operations. 

The essential lesson, as soon as once more realized from Israel’s harsh expertise, is that large-scale, multi-arena wars can erupt unexpectedly, even when the events’ pursuits don’t totally align. Initially, it was not clear that the October 7 assault would draw Hezbollah into the battle provided that it had not been robust allies with Hamas, however the two teams took larger dangers for each other than Western analysts anticipated. Their preliminary motivation was pushed by hatred towards Israel, a dedication to their terrorist agenda, and a need to keep away from standing idle whereas one other terrorist group waged a large-scale combat in opposition to Israel. Moreover, they sought to keep away from showing much less dedicated to terrorism or much less against Israel. 

Subsequently, nations should take this into consideration and perceive that beforehand unconnected terrorist organizations could cooperate towards the identical objective—requiring preparation for struggle situations involving a number of fronts. It’s possible that their cooperation will likely be primarily based on a shared ideology, similar to resistance to Western affect. It’s tough to find out if exterior intervention can eradicate such collaborations between terrorist organizations, however terrorist teams have to be made to know that changing into concerned in a full-scale struggle will come at a major value to them and their host nations. 

As well as, the US and Israel, with the help of Western allies, ought to concentrate on disrupting cooperation, nonetheless restricted, between terrorist organizations throughout peacetime. These efforts ought to complement different steps geared toward decreasing the empowerment of terrorist organizations sooner or later. This consists of capitalizing on the vulnerabilities of the Axis of Resistance to disrupt its empowerment and arms transfers, and strengthen options inside their dwelling nations to supply the civilian providers beforehand provided by these organizations—making certain that, in contrast to in latest many years, these teams don’t take over their nations. 

Moreover, the US and Israel, together with Western allies, ought to apply stress to the nations the place these terrorist organizations originate to stop them from utilizing civilian areas for operations, together with by threatening to withhold monetary backing. Moreover, these allies ought to take motion in opposition to terror services in civilian areas as quickly as they’re recognized. This might come within the type of army motion, exposing these services so the terrorist organizations could be reluctant to make use of them, and pressuring nations to take motion in opposition to these services themselves. The objective ought to all the time be to attenuate civilian hurt, cut back the risk posed by such services, and deter terrorist teams from working in these areas as a result of threat of destruction and lack of sources.

The psychological struggle

Following the disaster of October 7, Israel shortly regained its army effectiveness and succeeded in inflicting substantial harm on its enemies. This restoration was additional strengthened by the exceptional help of its allies, which enhanced each its capabilities and strategic place. This mannequin might additionally apply to different nations that could be attacked sooner or later. 

Though Israel managed to get better from the shock of the October 7 assault, the broader perspective of the Gaza struggle highlighted the numerous impression of psychological terror on each the civilian inhabitants and authorities decision-making. This represents a brand new kind of warfare, one which entails not solely mainstream media and information reviews but additionally underground sources. Actions by Hamas, similar to releasing hostage movies, spreading rumors, and leaking data, profoundly influenced public sentiment, contributing to the chaos seen in Israel, significantly within the struggle’s early months.

That is one other shared lesson from each the Center East battle and the Russia-Ukraine struggle. It’s arduous to foretell whether or not future conflicts with terrorist organizations will essentially contain these sorts of psychological threats and ways. Nevertheless, it’s clear that the stream of data at the moment—through social media, messaging apps, and different platforms—not solely shapes public opinion but additionally influences the battlefield.

The conflicts throughout the Center East that erupted in late 2023 will carry an enduring legacy for your entire area. As policymakers flip to the way forward for Gaza and different political negotiations, they need to additionally be aware of the teachings realized over the previous sixteen months as they search to reshape the area and cut back the impression of terrorism. This specific collection of conflicts could also be coming to an in depth, however the risk will not be going away.

Maayan Dagan is a visiting analysis fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Center East Packages.

Additional studying

Picture: Palestinians look on through the handover by Hamas of deceased hostages, recognized on the time by Palestinian militant teams as Oded Lifschitz, Shiri Bibas and her two kids Kfir and Ariel Bibas, seized through the lethal October 7, 2023 assault, to the Crimson Cross, as a part of a ceasefire and hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Khan Younis within the southern Gaza Strip, February 20, 2025. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY